Source StraitsTimes
IN AN increasingly complex and inter-connected world, it is no longer enough for policy-makers to just do passive scenario planning.
Instead, governments around the world will need to proactively collect and analyse 'weak signals and wild cards' emanating from sources ranging from online forums to blogs, so they can 'anticipate and be prepared for a range of possible futures', said Deputy Prime Minister and Coordinating Minister for National Security S Jayakumar on Monday.
In his address to 300 delegates at the second International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (Rahs) symposium, he warned that warned that the financial crisis and food and commodity problems the world is currently facing is 'only a glimpse of the complexity and uncertainty the future has in store.'
And while 'it is not possible for us to have a crystal ball through which we can see the future', policy-makers need 'a coherent and systematic framework to anticipate and manage potential changes.'
This is where Rahs comes in.
Such early warning systems are designed to ferret out data about health, financial and other geo-political issues from information sources like newspapers, online forums and blogs.
Artificial intelligence then determines what this data means, and more importantly, if the issue is gaining momentum. If it is, policy-makers will be alerted so they can make changes to better deal with the issue.
Prof Jayakumar said the three-year-old Rahs project has given Singapore a 'useful baseline capacity' in this area, but more can be done including better inter-government communication and collaboration.
The two-day symposium, he said, 'brings together a good mix of practitioners, consultants and academics who have worked on the various aspects of strategic anticipation', and he hoped it would result in useful strategies.
Note: Jayakumar's full speech can be downloaded from the website here
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