Don’t underestimate Umno’s grip

Source MalaysianInsider

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 23 — With all the talk of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim taking over the government in Malaysia, it would be a grave mistake to count out Umno. Malaysia only has to look to Thailand to understand how a dominant party has a way of returning from the brink no matter how many times it changes its name.

Yes, we are talking about the former Thai Rak Thai party and its political machine that, for better or for worse, captured the imagination of so many Thais. Anti-government forces in both countries should focus on whether alternative political solutions or models that appeal to the masses can be developed.

This is not to say that Anwar's supporters do not have legitimate grievances: they do. A new generation of non-native Malaysians are challenging the longstanding quota system that favours natives at the expense of third- or fourth-generation immigrants who feel they are just as Malaysian as anyone else. The problem with this movement is that too much depends on one charismatic leader. These grievances are too important for them to rest on one person. Could the reform movement continue without him?

And while Anwar is putting on a brave face amid the political onslaught against him, the opposition icon knows that there are many roadblocks ahead on his journey.

The next hurdle will be his trial on Friday on sodomy charges. If the sodomy case against Anwar in 1999 is any indication, this time round the world can expect the prosecution to throw all of its might into finishing him once and for all.

Popular opinion at this point in time appears to be on Anwar's side. After all, the first sodomy trial produced a line of "victims" who claimed to have been sodomised by Anwar only to retract their accusations later. Yet this time round one can be sure that the accusers will do their utmost to cover all their bases and make the charge stick. If not, the government might have to dissolve Parliament and call a snap election.

Anwar has repeatedly said he has enough government MPs willing to defect to his camp. Is he bluffing? Nobody can say for sure, but it should be noted that Anwar has lived up to his earlier promise that he would deny the ruling coalition a two-thirds majority in Parliament. It was an achievement that not long ago might have seemed impossible. — The Nation